ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003 HILDA IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN THOUGHT EARLIER...AND SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA AND A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL VISIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. IF THAT SWIRL TURNS OUT TO BE ALL THERE IS THEN A FURTHER NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE REQUIRED LATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION...TO 43 KT IN 36 HOURS...UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND SSTS NEAR 27C...ALTHOUGH NO OTHER GUIDANCE DOES SO. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THIS CYCLONE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HILDA SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL PROVIDE A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...ALTHOUGH THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY MAY BE A RESPONSE TO THE FLOW SURROUNDING GUILLERMO. HILDA IS NOT GAINING GROUND ON GUILLERMO...SO I DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 16.0N 118.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.6N 119.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.3N 124.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 126.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 135.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W 30 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC