Tropical Storm FELICIA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003
FELICIA IS LIKELY GOING INTO TERMINAL DECLINE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NOW-DISSIPATING CONVECTION...AND ANIMATION
OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS JUST BARELY CLOSED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SSM/I DATA. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER COOLER WATER IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL BECOMING A NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.6N 135.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 141.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN