ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003 FELICIA IS LIKELY GOING INTO TERMINAL DECLINE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NOW-DISSIPATING CONVECTION...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS JUST BARELY CLOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SSM/I DATA. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL BECOMING A NON- CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 17.6N 135.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 18.0N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 24/0000Z 18.5N 139.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 24/1200Z 19.1N 141.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC