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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003
 
FELICIA IS LIKELY GOING INTO TERMINAL DECLINE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NOW-DISSIPATING CONVECTION...AND ANIMATION
OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS JUST BARELY CLOSED. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SSM/I DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER COOLER WATER IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL BECOMING A NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.6N 135.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 141.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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