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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR SO.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 16.0N 126.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 128.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 131.4W    25 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 134.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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