ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.0N 126.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.4N 128.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.8N 131.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 134.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1200Z 19.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z 20.0N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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