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Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003
 
FELICIA REMAINS UNDER MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA
AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. HOWEVER...SINCE THE RECENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN JUST A FEW
HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11. THIS MOTION KEEPS
FELICIA ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA IS MOVING ALONG A SHARP
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR
JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FORM OCCURRING. IT IS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT FELICIA COULD BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DURING ONE OF THE
BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE BURSTING. BY 36 HOURS...FELICIA WILL BE
MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A RAPID WEAKENING
TREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 15.8N 125.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.6N 129.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.2N 132.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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