ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003 FELICIA REMAINS UNDER MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. HOWEVER...SINCE THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN JUST A FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11. THIS MOTION KEEPS FELICIA ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA IS MOVING ALONG A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR...IN COMBINATION WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR... SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FORM OCCURRING. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT FELICIA COULD BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DURING ONE OF THE BRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE BURSTING. BY 36 HOURS...FELICIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 15.8N 125.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 16.6N 129.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 17.2N 132.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 23/0600Z 17.9N 135.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0600Z 19.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC