Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU OCT 23 2003

NICHOLAS IS NOW COMPRISED OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 25 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THIS...NICHOLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30
KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/12...AND SINCE 06Z NICHOLAS MAY BE
MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH.  A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THAT SHOULD BE IN 24-36 HR AS STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS HOLD ON TO
NICHOLAS FOR 4-5 DAYS...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 22.3N  56.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 24.0N  56.9W    25 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.5N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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