ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST THU OCT 23 2003 NICHOLAS IS NOW COMPRISED OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS...NICHOLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/12...AND SINCE 06Z NICHOLAS MAY BE MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THAT SHOULD BE IN 24-36 HR AS STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS HOLD ON TO NICHOLAS FOR 4-5 DAYS...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 22.3N 56.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1800Z 24.0N 56.9W 25 KT 24HR VT 24/0600Z 26.5N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC