Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003
 
AN IMPRESSIVE COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FLARED UP OVERNIGHT
EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE
CDO.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 5 DAYS.
 
NICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...295/6.  THE
TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL.
NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS
SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
THESE MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 18.7N  50.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.2N  51.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.1N  52.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  53.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 23.2N  53.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.3N  53.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 36.0N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 
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