ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003 AN IMPRESSIVE COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FLARED UP OVERNIGHT EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE CDO. THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 5 DAYS. NICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...295/6. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 18.7N 50.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 19.2N 51.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 20.1N 52.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 53.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 23.2N 53.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.3N 53.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0600Z 36.0N 52.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC