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Hurricane DANNY

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HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/16.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH DANNY MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY FORECAST.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  DANNY WILL VERY SOON
MOVE OVER COLDER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING.  IF THE
CYCLONE SURVIVES THE COLD WATER AND SOME STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS
POSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS
CHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 41.4N  49.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 42.3N  46.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 42.4N  42.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 41.4N  39.7W    40 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 39.8N  37.8W    30 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 36.5N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 34.3N  39.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/0600Z 33.0N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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