ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/16. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH DANNY MOVING AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS. DANNY WILL VERY SOON MOVE OVER COLDER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE COLD WATER AND SOME STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS CHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 41.4N 49.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 42.3N 46.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 42.4N 42.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 41.4N 39.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 39.8N 37.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 36.5N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0600Z 34.3N 39.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC