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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003
 
ONCE AGAIN THE WIND CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THE
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS TIME THERE WAS A RESPONSE IN THE
PRESSURE FIELD.  THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS 996
MB...DOWN ABOUT 11 MB SINCE YESTERDAY.  FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR
60 KT AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KT.  IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS IS A TRANSITORY PRESSURE FALL. 
ALTHOUGH THE RECON CENTER FIX WAS A SOLID ONE...THE FEATURE THEY
ARE TRACKING STILL APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND WITHIN A BROADER
CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE...FIX TO FIX MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
MISLEADING.  THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
300/6.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT MAY CAUSE CLAUDETTE TO LINGER A LITTLE
LONGER OVER THE GULF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER
AND A SHADE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EACH INTERACTION OF
THE CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ALSO SLOWS THE
WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE BASIC FORECAST
THINKING IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.

MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SHEAR LESSENS SLIGHTLY...
AND CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 25.4N  92.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 25.7N  93.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 26.1N  94.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 26.4N  95.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 26.5N  97.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 26.5N 101.5W    25 KT...DISSPATING INLAND
120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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