ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003 ONCE AGAIN THE WIND CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS TIME THERE WAS A RESPONSE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD. THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS 996 MB...DOWN ABOUT 11 MB SINCE YESTERDAY. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR 60 KT AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KT. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS IS A TRANSITORY PRESSURE FALL. ALTHOUGH THE RECON CENTER FIX WAS A SOLID ONE...THE FEATURE THEY ARE TRACKING STILL APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND WITHIN A BROADER CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...FIX TO FIX MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE MISLEADING. THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT MAY CAUSE CLAUDETTE TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE GULF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND A SHADE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EACH INTERACTION OF THE CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ALSO SLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE BASIC FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SHEAR LESSENS SLIGHTLY... AND CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 25.4N 92.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 25.7N 93.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 26.1N 94.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 26.4N 95.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 26.5N 97.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 17/1200Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...DISSPATING INLAND 120HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC