Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Parts of the U.S. Government are closed. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown. For critical weather information, please visit To learn more, see

National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

Updated 04 April 2017


  1. Introduction
  2. Forecast verification procedures
  3. Annual NHC verification reports
  4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
  5. Official error trends
  6. Model error trends
  7. NHC official forecast error database
  8. Performance measures and goals
  9. References

7. NHC official forecast error database

The links below contain tabulations of individual NHC official track and intensity forecast errors, and a description of the file format. These verifications include subtropical systems and are homogeneous with the current best track CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models.

Next: Performance measures and goals