National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification
Updated 22 May 2025
Contents
- Introduction
- Forecast verification procedures
- Annual NHC verification reports
- Official five-year mean errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast error database
- Performance measures and goals
- References
7. NHC official forecast error database
The links below contain tabulations of individual NHC official track and intensity forecast errors, and a description of the file format. These verifications include subtropical systems and are homogeneous with the current best track CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models.
- Official NHC Atlantic Track and Intensity Forecast
Errors (1970-2024, excluding depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 650 KB)
- Official NHC Atlantic Track and Intensity Forecast
Errors (1989-2024, including depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 700 KB)
- Official NHC East Pacific Track and Intensity
Forecast Errors (1989-2024, including depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 650 KB)
- Official NHC Atlantic Along- and Cross-Track
Forecast Errors (1970-2024, excluding depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 820 KB)
- Official NHC Atlantic Along- and Cross-Track
Forecast Errors (1989-2024, including depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 850 KB)
- Official NHC East Pacific Along- and Cross-Track
Forecast Errors (1989-2024, including depressions)
(text file 6 MB) (zip file 800 KB)
- Description of Error Tabulation File Format (.pdf)
Next: Performance measures and goals
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