National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification

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Contents

1. Introduction
2. Forecast verification procedures
3. Annual NHC verification reports
4. Official five-year mean errors and distributions
5. Official error trends
6. Model error trends
7. NHC official forecast error database
8. Performance measures and goals
9. References

5. Official error trends

This section contains information on NHC forecast errors over the years. The verifications below are based on the NHC best track database as of 12 May 2023, and, except as noted, follow the verification procedures given in Section 2.  All verifications in this section include subtropical systems, and are homogeneous with the best track CLIPER5 and Decay-SHIFOR5 models.  Because forecasts for non-developing depressions are not available in digital form prior to 1989, verifications that include years before 1989 are given for tropical storms and hurricanes only.  

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes:  Track Errors (1970 - 2023)

Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2023. (pdf)

Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes for the period 1970-2023, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.

Official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical storms and hurricanes by decade.

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones:  Track Errors (1990 - 2023)

Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023. (pdf)

Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.

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Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones:  Intensity Errors (1990 - 2023)

Annual average official intensity errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023. (pdf)

Annual average official intensity errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.

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Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones:  Track Errors (1990 - 2023)

Annual average official track errors for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023. (pdf)

Annual average official track errors for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.

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Eastern North Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones:  Intensity Errors (1990 - 2023)

Annual average official intensity errors for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023. (pdf)

Annual average official intensity errors for eastern North Pacific basin tropical cyclones for the period 1990-2023, with least-squares trend lines superimposed.

Next: Model error trends