ABPZ20 KNHC 031131
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 3 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Orlene, which is located near the southwest coast of Mexico.
South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have become more concentrated
overnight. However, the thunderstorms are currently displaced to
the southwest of the low-level center. Only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression
later today or tonight while the system moves slowly
northward-northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next
several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.