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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



944 
AXPZ20 KNHC 090852
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Howard is centered near 21.6N 116.1W at 09/0900 UTC
moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Peak seas are currently around 24 ft. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. 
Weakening is expected to begin later today and continue 
during the next couple of days. Howard is forecast to weaken to 
a tropical storm tonight, and become post-tropical on Wed night 
or early Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 78W just offshore Colombia
extending northward across eastern Panama and into the western
Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the
coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama.

A tropical wave has its axis near 94W north of 02N to across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southern Mexico, moving west at 
around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 137W from 02N to 17N, moving 
west at around 20 kt. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N94W to 09N100W to 
14N109W. It resumes southwest of Hurricane Howard from 15N118W 
to 12N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 07N to 16N between 94W and 112W, from 10N to 12N
between 116W and 122W, and from 10N to 15N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Howard.

Aside from Hurricane Howard, gentle to moderate winds are 
occurring offshore Baja California where seas are 4-7 ft. Light 
to gentle mainly southerly winds are in the Gulf of California, 
with seas of 3 ft or less north of the entrance. Fresh to strong 
N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 5-7 ft 
ft. Mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail 
elsewhere outside of Howard. 

For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to 
strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early
Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in the Gulf of
California tonight and again Thu night along with nocturnal 
convection. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
associated with a trough of low pressure is currently located 
several hundred nautical miles south of southern Mexico. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this 
week while it moves west-northwestward, well offshore of the 
coast of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 5 days. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore Nicaragua, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 
ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
the next several days, pulsing to fresh in the Papagayo region.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Hurricane Howard.

Outside of Hurricane Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure 
dominates the waters north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
fresh trades and seas of 5-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon 
trough to near 27N and west of 130W, except fresh to strong from
14N to 20N west of 135W with seas in the 8-11 ft range per 
recent altimeter data. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft,
are north of 27N and west of 126W. Gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail south of 
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will 
prevail north of 25N and west of 128W through tonight. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the week, becoming
moderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough and west of 115W 
by the start of the weekend. Seas of 8-11 ft in the west-central
waters in east swell will decay to less than 8 ft early Wed. 
Seas of around 8 ft will reach and breach 03.4S to the north this
afternoon, decaying by the end of the week into the weekend. 
Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere and otherwise.

$$
Lewitsky