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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232207
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will 
tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure 
builds behind a cold front currently moving across the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with
winds forecast to reach gale-force tonight through early Sun
morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in 
the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon. 

NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1002 mb gale-force low near 34N133W 
is producing fresh to strong WNW winds and seas to 15 ft in the 
northwest waters of the eastern Pacific. The low will continue to 
strengthen just north of our area and then drift southward into 
the NW waters during the weekend. Gales with this low are 
forecast over the NW waters late Sat through Sun morning. 
Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will 
propagate southward with the low and continue to impact the
western and central subtropical waters. Seas greater than 12 ft 
associated with this swell will impact much of the waters north 
of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak 
near 23 ft Sat night. Conditions will improve Mon as the low 
weakens and moves north of the area.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08N83W to 04N95W to 03N111W. 
The ITCZ stretches from 03N111W to 04N117W. A surface trough is 
analyzed along 121W, from 00N to 08N. The ITCZ then continues 
from 04N126W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is from 02N to 11N between 96W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information about
the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak subtropical ridge prevail over the E Pacific subtropical
waters and extends to the Baja California Peninsula, thus
supporting light to gentle NNW winds along the offshore waters 
of Baja California as well as the S and SW Mexican offshores. 
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A surface trough over W Mexico
tightens the pressure gradient in the Gulf of California and
supports moderate to fresh NW winds extending to Jalisco offshore
waters and 3-5 ft seas, higher at the entrance of the gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind a 
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap
wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale force tonight 
through early Sun morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. 
Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun 
into Mon. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds 
should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several 
days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE winds are ongoing in both the Gulf of Papagayo 
and in the Gulf of Panama with 5-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds across and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo will strengthen to near gale-force Sat 
night through early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft during the
strongest winds. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will reach strong speeds Sat night and continue for the next 
several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters.

Weak surface ridging dominates most of the subtropical waters 
in the eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to 
locally strong easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west
of 110W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh to occasional
strong trade winds north of the ITCZ will will diminish to 
mainly moderate by late today. Areal coverage of seas greater 
than 8 ft will gradually decay over the next couple of days. 

$$
Ramos