AXPZ20 KNHC 232207
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will
tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure
builds behind a cold front currently moving across the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with
winds forecast to reach gale-force tonight through early Sun
morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in
the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon.
NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1002 mb gale-force low near 34N133W
is producing fresh to strong WNW winds and seas to 15 ft in the
northwest waters of the eastern Pacific. The low will continue to
strengthen just north of our area and then drift southward into
the NW waters during the weekend. Gales with this low are
forecast over the NW waters late Sat through Sun morning.
Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will
propagate southward with the low and continue to impact the
western and central subtropical waters. Seas greater than 12 ft
associated with this swell will impact much of the waters north
of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak
near 23 ft Sat night. Conditions will improve Mon as the low
weakens and moves north of the area.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The equatorial trough extends from 08N83W to 04N95W to 03N111W.
The ITCZ stretches from 03N111W to 04N117W. A surface trough is
analyzed along 121W, from 00N to 08N. The ITCZ then continues
from 04N126W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 11N between 96W and 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for information about
the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
A weak subtropical ridge prevail over the E Pacific subtropical
waters and extends to the Baja California Peninsula, thus
supporting light to gentle NNW winds along the offshore waters
of Baja California as well as the S and SW Mexican offshores.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A surface trough over W Mexico
tightens the pressure gradient in the Gulf of California and
supports moderate to fresh NW winds extending to Jalisco offshore
waters and 3-5 ft seas, higher at the entrance of the gulf.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind a
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap
wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale force tonight
through early Sun morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night.
Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun
into Mon. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds
should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Moderate NE winds are ongoing in both the Gulf of Papagayo
and in the Gulf of Panama with 5-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, moderate easterly winds across and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo will strengthen to near gale-force Sat
night through early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft during the
strongest winds. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama
will reach strong speeds Sat night and continue for the next
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters.
Weak surface ridging dominates most of the subtropical waters
in the eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to
locally strong easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west
of 110W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh to occasional
strong trade winds north of the ITCZ will will diminish to
mainly moderate by late today. Areal coverage of seas greater
than 8 ft will gradually decay over the next couple of days.