000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building over
the western Gulf of Mexico will support strong gales across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon, increasing to storm force gap
winds by late evening. Seas are already rough to very rough 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and well downstream, but will 
build to at least 25 ft by Wed afternoon, with a plume of rough 
to very rough seas reaching up to 500 nm to the south and 
southwest of the Gulf. Looking ahead, these winds and seas will 
diminish slightly through Thu, but gap winds to gale force may 
persist into Sat with rough seas persisting longer.

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
over the Great Basin are supporting gale force winds over the 
northern Gulf of California this morning. Winds will diminish 
below gale force by this afternoon, but fresh to strong NW winds 
and rough seas will continue down the length of the Gulf of 
California through mid week.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 
stretches from 06N90W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is present from 03N to 08N east of 85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information a Storm
Warning for the Tehuantepec Region and a Gale Warning for the
northern Gulf of California.

The strong high pressure over the Great Basin that is responsible
for the gale force winds across the northern Gulf of California
is also supporting fresh NE gap winds over low spots along the 
Baja California Peninsula. The main area is north of Punta 
Eugenia, where a recent scatterometer satellite pass already 
indicated a large area of fresh gap winds. Combined seas off 
Baja California Norte are likely as high as 8 ft, due to the gap 
winds and NW swell entering the area. 

For the forecast, through tonight, this pattern will also 
support plumes of fresh to strong NE gap winds across the Baja 
California Peninsula along with their associated rough seas 
mainly north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere across the 
offshore waters of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to locally 
strong NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading 
downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, 
moderate southerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found south of 
the monsoon trough, especially south of 03N. Elsewhere, gentle or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo through at least late week. Seas there will build to 
8-10 ft late in the week. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Seas generated by storm 
force winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the 
offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador periodically
through mid-week, with seas forecast to peak around 16 ft in NW 
swell Wed and Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along
a surface trough near 135W from 20N to 25N. The trough is
associated with a larger mid to upper level trough that is also
supporting a 1010 mb low pressure farther west near 25N145W, well to
the northeast of Hawaii. An arc of fresh to strong SE winds is 
converging around the trough and toward the low pressure, mainly 
north of 28N and west of 135W, and from 22N to 28N between 130W 
and 135W. Combined seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 20N and west of 
130W, in part due to the winds, but also due to longer-period NW 
swell in the area. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 
15N and east of 130W. This pattern is support a large area of 
fresh to occasionally strong trade wind over the deep tropics 
from 08N to 15N, between 125W and 135W, with 9 to 11 ft seas in a
mix of wind waves and NW swell. The NW swell is also supporting 
7 to 9 ft seas over the remaining area west of 110W. Farther 
east, NE swell from the gap wind events in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are reaching westward toward 105W along roughly 10N. 
Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds between the 
the low pressure northeast of Hawaii and the ridge to the 
northeast will continue to affect the waters north of 20N and 
west of 130W through Tue. Large NW swell will continue to 
propagate into the waters west of 125W, and mix with shorter 
period seas associated with the trade wind flow over the deep 
tropics. Altogether, expect 8 to 11 ft seas across much of the 
area west of 125W through tonight. These wave heights will 
subside to 8 to 9 ft and diminish in areal extent mid to late 
week. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. By late 
week, strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas will reach as
far west as 110W along roughly 10N from storm- force gap winds 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

$$
Christensen