AXPZ20 KNHC 031602
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Heavy Rainfall in Western Colombia: Enhanced westerly flow
damming up against the Andes Mountains will lead to significant
moisture pooling over western Colombia. This combined with a
surface trough north of the area and warmer than normal ocean
temperatures will lead to periods of heavy rainfall over the
mountainous terrain through Thursday morning. This heavy rain
could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Please refer
to local statements issued by your national meteorological
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia to 03N85W to 04N98W to 02N110W to 05N128W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N128W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within about 60 nm S of the trough between
108W and 119W, and from 03N to 06N between 126W and 138W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds have diminished below gale force in
the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will then
persist through Thu night. Seas will gradually subside to less
than 8 ft by Thu night. Another gale-force gap wind event is
expected in the Tehuantepec area Sat night through Mon night.
A decaying cold front will move across northern Baja California
into the Gulf of California tonight. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California ahead of
the front late this morning and diminish early Thu morning. As a
high pressure builds across the area in the wake of the front,
expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night and Fri.
Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia,
today, ahead of a cold front approaching the offshore forecast
waters of northern Baja California. Seas will build to 8-12 ft in
NW swell by tonight. A second set of NW swell will impact these
same waters late Fri through Sun.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please see Special Features Section above for details on heavy
rainfall and flooding potential over western Colombia through Thu
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas in the 7-10 ft range will
continue across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will continue across the Gulf of
Panama and extend southward to 04.5N. These winds may increase to
fresh to strong on Sun with seas building to 8 ft W of 80W.
Light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range will
dominate elsewhere through the week. No significant swell event
is forecast during the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends from 30N120W to 21N127W. Fresh to strong
winds are occurring on either side of the front forecast to move
eastward, reaching Baja California late today while weakening.
Large northerly swell continues to propagate across the northern
forecast waters in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.
This swell will spread east-southeast through Thu, peaking at
around 16 ft now near 29N133W before gradually subsiding into
Thu. Yet another round of large NW swell is expected to reach the
far northwest waters on Thu as a weaker cold front, with respect
to associated winds, moves into the northern waters. This swell
will propagate through most of the basin north of 10N and west of
110W through Sat.