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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 041605

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
in the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a former cold front is 
producing a very tight pressure gradient across southern Mexico. 
Strong gale force N winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
expanding southward to 12N. Seas across this area have built to 
12-20 ft. Winds will gradually diminish below gale-force by Sun 
morning. Large seas generated by this event will spread 
southward to 08N and southeastward across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website for more details.


A surface trough extends from near 08N79W to 01N84W to 02N90W to
02N104W. The ITCZ extends from 02N104W to 02N120W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N W of 130W.


Please read the Special Features section for details on an
ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force 
winds in this region are expected to end Sun morning, then 
remain strong through Mon. Strong winds extend well offshore to 
near 10N106W.

High pressure located W of the Baja California peninsula
continues to extend a ridge southeastward across the offshore 
waters of Mexico while high pressure N of the area has shifted 
eastward. This has reduced the pressure gradient, leading to 
gentle to moderate NW winds across the Gulf of California, with 
seas to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds extend across the
Baja offshore waters where seas range between 5-6 ft. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas to 6 ft in NW 

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a decaying
cold front will approach Baja California by late Sun, with high 
pressure building across the Baja waters with and behind it. This
will produce fresh to strong NW-N winds offshore Baja California
from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun through Mon night. Similar 
winds will spread south through the Gulf of California. New NW 
swell will arrive across the offshore Baja waters ahead of the 
front, and with the fresh to strong winds.


Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf
of Papagayo region, where seas of 6-9 ft prevail. Fresh N-NE 
winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching beyond the Azuero 
Peninsula and producing seas of 4-7 ft. Winds are mainly light 
to gentle elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week, near gale- 
force at times, producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh 
swell generated by the current Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force 
gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala 
and El Salvador offshore waters through Sun. Fresh to strong 
N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at night, 
through Sun night.


NW swell associated with the remnants of a stationary front is 
producing seas of 8-10 ft north of 25N and west of 125W. Surface 
high pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 30N122W, with an 
associated ridge dominate the open waters N of 10N W of 110W. 
Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 108W, with gentle to moderate winds across the
remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the waters 
north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 110W due to mixed NW 
and NE swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail 
across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds extending from the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec gap wind event extends well southwest and will reach
to 107W by Sat. A new cold front will move southeast of 30N140W 
by early Sat, and approach the Baja California Norte waters Sat
night through Sun. Strong high pressure will build in the wake 
of the front with fresh to strong trades covering most of the 
waters west of 120W by Sun, and moderate to fresh trades 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will 
continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater 
associated with the front will mainly be across the northern 
waters through tonight, then expand across most of the waters 
west of 110W, aided by the fresh to strong trades.