000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011558
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave is along 101W north of 02N, moving west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 08N to 14N between 93W and 104W. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be favorable for development of this system 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of this week while it moves 
generally northwestward. The system has a medium chance of
tropical development within the next 48 hours, and a high chance
in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest on this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1010 mb low pres near
13N122W to 11N139W. The ITCZ extends from that point to beyond 
12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 15N
and E of 94W, from 04N to 09N between 101W and 116W, and from 08N
to 14N and W of 125W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends across the northern portion of the
Gulf of California and along 27N and W of 115W. Surface ridging 
prevails elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico with a 
surface trough from SW Arizona to across the northern Gulf of 
California and Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong S-SW winds 
prevail in the northern Gulf of California near the front. Fresh
to locally strong N winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
currently. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except
locally fresh across the nearshore waters between Cabo San 
Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4-6 ft across the open waters.
In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-7 ft in the northern Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. A 
tropical wave is moving across portions of southern Mexico. For 
more details, see above. 

For the forecast, moderate seas will not vary much into the 
middle of the week. Fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the 
immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, 
through tonight, then moderate to occasionally fresh thereafter. 
Fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will 
pulse through tonight. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere
through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, environmental
conditions around a tropical wave described above are expected 
to be favorable for development of this system during the next 
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the middle part of next week while it moves generally 
northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except
moderate to fresh offshore Nicaragua. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 10N 
as well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula, and 4-6 ft
in SE-S swell elsewhere S of 10N. Scattered thunderstorms are
occurring offshore Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through the next several days, except moderate to
fresh from the Equator to 06N Mon night through Tue, then from
03N to 08N from Tue night through Wed morning. Seas will not 
vary much through Mon evening, then will build slightly where the
moderate to fresh winds are. New southerly swell will build seas
slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave with
chance of tropical formation.

High pressure N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds from 12N to 21N and W of 137W, along with seas of
7-8 ft in mixed NE and SE swell. A dissipating cold front 
extends from 28N120W to 30N140W. Fresh N-NE winds are noted N of
the front per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 7-10 ft in mainly SE swell 
covers the waters S of 12N and W of 95W. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed
swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds and 7-8 ft seas in
the W-central waters will diminish today. The weakening cold 
front will dissipate later today, with a remnant trough 
continuing to push S along with accompanying moderate to fresh 
N-NE winds, reaching from 22N130W to 24N140W early Mon before 
diminishing. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the 
remainder of the open waters through the next several days. The 
southerly swell will decay slightly through Mon, however 7-8 ft 
seas will linger S of the Equator through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA