AXPZ20 KNHC 092122
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jun 9 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is along 79W north of 04N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident
ahead of the wave axis from 02N to 10N between 80W and 88W.
A tropical wave is analyzed near 91W north of 04N, moving west
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 10N between 90W and 100W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W
westward across Costa Rica to 11N92W to 09N100W to 06N113. The
ITCZ continues from 06N113W to 06N125W to beyond 07N140W.
Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between
100W and 105W, and from 08N to 10N between 128W and 133W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge continues to dominates the waters W of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas are 3-5 ft
based on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate S to Sw winds are
over the northern section of the Gulf of California along with
seas of 2-3 ft. Elsewhere across the Gulf, light and variable
winds are noted with seas of 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the
entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle W-NW winds and seas of 3-5
ft in S to SW long-period swell prevail elsewhere across the
Mexican offshore waters.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the region through early next week producing
gentle to moderate NW winds, with occasionally fresh winds
between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at night.
Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo San Lucas
at night through the next few nights. Gentle to locally moderate
W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will change
little through the period. A weakening cold front moving into
the Baja California peninsula Sat into Sun will support strong to
near-gale force SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California
Sat night. Gentle winds will persist elsewhere.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in
SW swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central
America, Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N, except 6-7 ft between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light and variable winds and
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.
For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the forecast
waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the offshore
waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-period SW
swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next week,
building seas to 7 or 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Islands by Tue. Enhanced moisture across the region will favor
the development of showers and thunderstorms off southern Central
America and Colombia through the next several days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of 15N and west of
110W. This pattern is supporting a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the area. Moderate to locally fresh
trades are observed from 08N-14N and W of 120W due to the
pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft
within these winds. Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds
prevail with seas generally 4-7 ft in mixed swell. A cold front
is just entering the far NW corner of the forecast region.
For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward across the
waters north of 20N through late Sat, and dissipate as it moves
into Baja California on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are
expected behind the front, with seas building to 6-8 ft. High
pressure building in the wake of the front may allow for fresh
trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to 12N west fo
130W through late Sat. the high pressure is forecast to
strenghten some by early next week.