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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 070828

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 10N75W
to 09N84W to 08N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N102W to 08N115W, 
then resumes west of a surface trough from 09N120W to 08N130W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted within 20N115W to 10N115W to 06N122W to 10N124W to 20N115W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 10N127W to 08N126W
to 06N133W to 08N133W to 10N127W.


Fresh to strong N winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
early this morning. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are in the
northern Gulf of California. Moderate NW-N winds are near Cabo
Corrientes. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail offshore of Mexico.
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California and 1 to 3 
ft over the Gulf of California. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail 
elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed. A possibly strong gale-
force gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late 
Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will pulse in the 
northern Gulf of California through this afternoon, then again 
Thu and Thu night ahead of a cold front. Freshening winds are 
forecast throughout the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes 
behind the front Fri through Sat night, with building seas west 
of Baja California. 


Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region. 
Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere, locally moderate near the
Azuero Peninsula as well as near the border of Ecuador and Peru.
Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Wed, then again Thu through Fri. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next several


High pressure prevails across the subtropics, anchored by 1028 mb
high pressure just north of the area near 31N140W. A surface
trough is embedded in the ITCZ from 10N116W to 06N119W. Very
active convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough as is
described above, along with locally higher winds and seas. The 
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure near the 
ITCZ is producing fresh strong NE to E trade winds north of the 
ITCZ to around 23N and west of 130W, along with seas of 8 to 13 
ft per recent altimeter data, highest near 16N139W. Moderate to 
fresh winds are occurring elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of
about 115W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas are 5 to 8 ft 
across the remainder of the waters.South of the ITCZ, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and large seas
in the west-central waters will gradually diminish and subside
through Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front will 
move south of 30N later today, reaching from 30N123W to 25N125W 
to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are 
expected north of this front. Another cold front is expected to
move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with building 
seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between Baja 
California and 135W.