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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072105
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Swell: Strong high pressure over the 
northwest discussion waters is supporting a large area of fresh 
to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N and west 
of 110W. The latest data from drifting buoys confirm significant
wave heights of 8 to 12 ft over much of this area, with peak 
seas of 13 ft near 18N136W. The primary swell direction west of
110W is from the NW. The drifting buoys also show that teh fresh
to strong trade winds have generated large and steep NE wind 
waves with a period 7-9 seconds, that are mixing with the longer
period NW swell west of 125W. West of 125W, seas will diminish 
below 12 ft by Wednesday evening, as the swell propagates 
westward out of the discussion area. East of 125W, high seas 
will prevail through tonight before gradually subsiding to less 
than 8 ft by Thursday morning. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 03N82W to 03N102W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N102W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between
125W and 127W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing 
fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California with 5-8
ft seas. Seas are highest in the southern Gulf of California. Fresh
to strong NE gap winds are noted offshore of Todos Santos, 
Mexico. Large NW swell continues to spread southeastward across 
the Baja offshore waters, with 8-11 ft seas reaching as far 
south as Socorro Island. See the Special Features section above 
for more details on the significant swell. Mainly moderate N to 
NE winds are elsewehre along the coast of Mexico north of 19N, 
with 5-7 ft seas, diminishing to gentle speeds south of 19N, with
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong high pressure dominates the Baja 
California offshore waters, and will maintain strong N winds and 
8-11 ft seas through tonight, with winds and seas then 
diminishing by Thu morning. Strong N winds in the central and 
southern Gulf of California will persist through Fri. Looking 
ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Thu, with gales 
starting Fri night and increasing to storm force Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft 
prevail. N to NE winds are moderate in the Gulf of Panama, 
producing seas of 3-5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are 
elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region and the coast of Nicaragua will prevail 
through Sat. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong across
the Gulf of Panama into Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
concerning significant swell.

East of 110W, seas are 6-8 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere,
moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave trough in 
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is supporting a few 
showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ near 125W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the waters 
west of 120W through tonight, then gradually weaken through Thu. 
Strong tradewinds and large seas to at least 12 ft will prevail 
across the area west of 120W through tonight before diminishing 
from E to W through Thu. A new cold front is expected to enter 
the waters north of 20N and west of 130W Thu, followed by 
additional large NW swell.

$$
Christensen/Mahoney