AXPZ20 KNHC 270952
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging
southward over eastern Mexico toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough is
inducing minimal north to northeast gale-force winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish later this
morning. Prior to then, seas will peak to near 12 ft. Overnight
altimeter data indicated seas up to 9 ft downstream of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec near 15N96W. Another gale-force gap wind event is
possible Sun night through Mon night. Please see the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
08N79W to 07N90W to 09N110W to 10N118W to 10N127W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicate that it transitions
to the ITCZ from 10N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 120 nm north of the trough between
94W-95W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 95W-98W,
and within 30 nm of the trough between 109W-111W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please see the Special Features section above for details
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the
northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light and
variable winds are over the rest of the Gulf, except for gentle
northwest winds over the central Gulf. An area of fresh to strong
northwest to north winds are over the waters between Cabo
Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore of the Baja
California Peninsula mainly due to a northwest swell, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere west-northwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.
Recent altimeter data indicates seas up to 9 ft downstream of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W.
For the forecast, gale-force north to northeast winds in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue for several more hours, then
diminish to strong speeds and change little through Sun. Gale-
force winds are again possible Sun night through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will develop near Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore
waters due to a south to southwest swell.
For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in
the Papagayo region beginning Sat night. Gentle to moderate
winds will remain elsewhere through early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about
119W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. The fresh winds are
concentrated from 14N to 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft with these trades
are also due to northwest swell energy. Divergence aloft present
to the east of an upper-level low that is observed near 18N121W
is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 15N to 20N between 115W- 121W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted to the east of
this area from 16N to 20N between 110W-115W. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the discussion waters
as seen in overnight ASCAT data passes. Seas of mainly 4-6 ft
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken through
late Sun as a front approaches the far northwest corner of
the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh winds to
diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside slightly to
5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will continue
elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of fresh
trades west of about 129W. After late Sun, the seas of 5-7 ft are
expected to continue into early next week.