AXPZ20 KNHC 080313
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 8 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W
to 07N94W. The ITCZ extends from 07N94W to 11N117W to 10N123W, then
resumes west of a surface trough from 07N127W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 25N between
118W and 127W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Strong N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the northern Gulf of California and also
near Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, one to two feet
in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will persist in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed, then redevelop this
weekend, with gale conditions possible Sun and Sun night. A cold
front moving through Thu and Thu night will lead to fresh to
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California, followed by a
period of fresh winds throughout the Gulf Fri and Sat. For the
waters west of Baja California, seas will build in the wake of
the front over the weekend.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Papagayo region.
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere. Seas are
mainly 4 to 6 ft across the waters.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region through through the next several days. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the next several
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front extends from north of the area to along 30N between
127W and 134W. High pressure prevails south of the front across
the subtropics, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure northwest of
the area near 34N143W. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ
from 10N117W to 07N127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the trough, as well as locally higher winds and seas. The
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure near the
ITCZ is producing fresh NE to E trade winds north of the ITCZ to
around 22N and west of 125W, along with seas of 8 to 11 ft.
Gentle to moderate winds are occurring elsewhere north of the
ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 8 ft.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and large seas
in the west-central waters will gradually diminish and subside
through Thu as the pressure gradient weakens. The cold front
will move south of 30N overnight, reaching from 30N123W to
25N125W to 25N136W by Wed morning. Fresh N winds and 7 to 8 ft
seas are expected north of this front. Another cold front is
expected to move into the northern waters Thu and Thu night, with
building seas and freshening winds behind it on Fri, between
Baja California and 135W.