000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290250
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N88W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N106W to 08N123W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolates strong convection is noted from 05N 
to 10N E of 105W, and from 06N to 10N between 116W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 36N142W
southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Afternoon ship 
observations and scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to
fresh NW flow off Baja California, strongest north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Seas across these offshore waters are 5 to 8 ft, except 8
to 9 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle to locally
moderate breezes and moderate combined seas in mixed swell are 
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will 
drift NE and well offshore of California through mid week, 
leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds 
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 
the waters to the west of Baja California through mid week as 
strong northerly winds expand across the waters offshore of 
California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters
of Baja Norte early Mon, and gradually shift westward and build 
further Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of
Costa Rica, and have recently developed across the Gulf of 
Panama. This activity is mostly due to moderate to occasionally 
fresh S to SW winds well south of the region converging into the 
monsoon trough that extends across the region, along with weak 
divergent flow aloft. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds persist
across the offshore areas with moderate combined seas in 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through mid 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 
expected across the region Wed night through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1030 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 36N142W is
supporting a large area of fresh trade winds south of 23N and into
the tropical Pacific west of 125W, and south of 18N between 120W
and 125W, as noted in afternoon scatterometer satellite data. 
These winds in turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in 
the same area, as measured with recent altimeter satellite data.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 
The convergent trade wind flow is supporting a large cluster of 
showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ between 118W and 125W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin
to drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will 
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 
24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 
8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft 
are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell 
offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft early 
Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W.
Looking ahead, the high pressure will weaken later in the week
ahead of a cold front moving eastward to the north of the region.
This will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, 
although combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical 
Pacific west of 135W.

$$
Stripling