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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271527
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.8N 116.9W at 27/1500
UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Peak seas are currently around 17 ft. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 113W and 119W. 
Celia is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion
is expected to continue over the next few days. Gradual 
weakening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post- 
tropical cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will 
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern
Baja California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico 
during the next couple of days. These conditions could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products 
from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and 
Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W north of 04N to Oaxaca, moving west
at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to
16N between 95W and 102W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at
10N85W to 10N110W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 11N between 78W and 121W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of
the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the 
waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and 
northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will begin to subside 
between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as well as to the 
entrance to the Gulf of California early today, and continue to 
propagate across the offshore waters of southern Baja California 
through the remainder of today. As Celia moves away from the 
offshore forecast waters by tonight, seas will continue to 
subside across the region. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early 
morning hours through the week. A tropical wave will move across 
the waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential 
for increasing winds and seas with it. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally winds are occurring offshore Guatemala and El
Salvador in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to 
moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft south of the
Galapagos Islands as well as in the wake of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Guatemala and
El Salvador will shift west of the area by this evening. 
Moderate to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf 
of Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases 
across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week.


REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds
are observed under the influence of this high north of 22N and 
west of 130W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell. 
Gentle winds are found from 04N to 11N between 100W and 130W. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 
ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, other than the gradually weakening Celia, a 
ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough and west of 125W through at least the middle 
of the week, then ridging will build from across the offshore 
waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly
swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of 
the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours.

$$
KONARIK