382 
AXPZ20 KNHC 080405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N94W to 07N101W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N114W to 05N128W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
02N to 07N between 123W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection 
is from 03N to 10N E of 102W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge 
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting 
moderate NW winds offshore the peninsula, with fresh winds 
NW of Guadalupe Island. Seas across this area are in the range 
of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 9 ft NW of Guadalupe Island.
Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and 
variable, with seas to 3 ft S of 29N. N of 29N, moderate to
locally fresh SW winds are present along with seas to 3 ft.  
Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are
moderate from the NW and seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 
shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure 
gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will 
lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja 
Peninsula waters through Wed, with small areas of locally fresh 
winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening, then
weaken to gentle to moderate Thu through Fri. As the high 
pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase across the 
near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW winds 
extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe 
Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into the area 
offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft 
persisting across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia 
through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters through
Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the offshore
waters between the Colombian coast to Costa Rica. This active 
weather is likely producing frequent, strong gusty winds, and 
moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America 
offshore waters N of 06N, winds remain light and variable and 
seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S 
to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of 07N through Thu, which will likely continue to 
feed into the very active showers and thunderstorms shifting 
slowly westward across the area. Computer models show abundant 
low level moisture moving slowly westward across the area N of 
02N through Thu. Favorable upper atmospheric conditions are 
expected to support very active convection during this time. 
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with 
moderate seas in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell will 
maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Wed through
early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell Fri afternoon 
through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern 
California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across 
the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are noted N of 20N between 115W and
130W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of 130W. Seas across 
this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell. S of 20N, between the
ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate to fresh NE winds and
7-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to 
moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE 
and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate 
speeds through Fri, as high pressure N of the area drifts 
northeastward. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected across the area of 
trade winds tonight, and gradually subside to 6 to 7 ft through 
Thu. NW swell across the Baja California Norte waters will build 
through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of
25W and E of 130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will 
subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Ramos