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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 071551

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N90W to 08.5N110W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 103W and 115W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N
to 09N between 132W and 140W.


A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW-N winds. Seas are 4-6 ft in NW 
swell. Light to gentle and variable winds are over the Gulf of 
California, with the exception of moderate northerly winds S of 
25N. These winds extend southward beyond the entrance of the Gulf
to about 22N. Seas are 3-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft 
elsewhere across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to
strong N winds are likely occurring with seas up to 6 ft. Light 
to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft in NW swell are 
across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California, supporting
gentle to moderate N winds through today. The ridge will 
strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to fresh
Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in
the southern and central Gulf of California tonight through Fri 
as high pressure builds across the Great Basin. These winds will 
build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California Thu 
night and Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Fri night with winds likely
reaching 30 kt tonight through Thu night.


Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. 
Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Light to gentle northeast to
east winds are elsewhere north of 09N, with seas of 3-5 ft. 
Gentle to locally moderate south to southwest winds with seas of
3-5 ft are present south of 09N. Light to gentle winds and seas 
of 3-4 ft are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region, strongest at night, through tonight. 
Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder 
of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. 
Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters 
of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be 
expected across most of the offshore waters through the next 
several days, except in the Papagayo region. 


A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters, 
anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure located N of the area near 
34N141W. Fresh trades extend from the ITCZ to 24N between 125W 
and 140W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across this wind zone based on 
recent altimeter data. Mainly moderate to locally fresh SE to S 
winds and 6-7 ft seas are present south of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast 
area over the next 24 to 36 hours. This will bring an increase 
in winds and seas across the west-central waters. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds and seas building to 9 to 12 ft are expected 
mainly across the waters from 11N to 25N and W of 125W through 
early Sat. The aerial coverage of these winds will decrease 
during the upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to strong trades
persisting from 14N to 20N W of 120W Fri night and Sat. The next
cold front is forecast to reach the far N waters early on Fri 
followed by a second front late on Sat. Long period northerly 
swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat 
night into Sun with building seas of 8-12 ft.