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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122055
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico near 16N108W, has changed little in organization during 
the past several hours. This system is still likely to become a 
short-lived tropical cyclone during the next day or so before 
upper-level winds become unfavorable for development on Sunday. 
The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 kt 
well offshore the coast of Mexico during the next few days. The 
system has a high chance of tropical development within the next 
48 hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 100W north of 04N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the 
monsoon trough/itcz section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 110W from 06N to 21N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low is associated with this 
wave, which is described in more detail in the Special Features 
section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to the low near 16N108W 
to 11N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 19N and E of 111W, and from 08N to 13N between 114W
and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low 
pressure located a few hundred nautical miles off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico with a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation.

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or 
less prevail in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore 
waters with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low 
pressure in the Special Features, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of California and the Baja offshores, while 
light to gentle variable winds are forecast for the remainder of 
the area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate winds are in the Papagayo region while gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are 5-7 ft across both the Central America and Ecuador 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds in the Papagayo region
will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on Sat and 
continue through the remainder forecast period. Moderate S to SW 
winds will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Island through the forecast period. Southwest 
swell will increase the seas in this region Sun night and will 
continue to spread northward towards the Central America offshore
waters through the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
a low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a 
tropical depression today or Sat. Regardless of development,
strong to near-gale winds are expected SW of the Baja California
Sur offshore waters Sat and Sun. 

The persistent remnant low of Howard is centered near 24N128W at
1016 mb. Peak seas are currently near 7 ft and associated winds 
are around 15-20 kt. This low is expected to dissipate by Sat
morning.

Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge dominates the waters north of 
the monsoon trough and W of 118W. Moderate NE to E winds are N of
20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the monsoon and
20N where seas are 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere N 
of the monsoon between 110W and 130W. Moderate S to SW winds are
noted S of the monsoon trough with seas to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no
major changes are expected elsewhere through early next week. 

$$
ERA