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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 200259

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from near 10.5N74W to 08N88W to 
13N101W to 08N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N117W to beyond 
06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03.5N to 08N E of 92W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08.5N and W of 120W to beyond 


Strong high pressure across the NE Pacific extends a broad ridge
south and southeastward to near 15N108W. This ridge is the main 
feature controlling the weather pattern across the offshore 
waters of Baja California, and is supporting moderate to fresh 
NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, with a few small areas of
strong winds near the coast, and gentle to moderate winds 
between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
in mixed NW and SW swell across the Baja waters, except to 8 ft
well offshore of Cabo San Lucas along 113W, as recently measured
by satellite altimeter. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of 
California, light to gentle winds prevail, with 2 to 4 ft seas at
the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5 
to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters. Moderate concentrations of smoke, due to 
agricultural fires across the region, continue to reduce 
visibility over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through at least 
mid-week. The pressure gradient between this and lower pressures
over Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds W of the Baja California peninsula. Winds will pulse to 
strong speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro tonight and Mon night. NW 
swell is forecast to impact the outer forecast waters of Baja 
California Norte beginning on Mon. Seas are expected to build 8 
to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia through Wed, with seas subsiding 
below 8 ft by Thu. Moderate concentrations of smoke, due to 
agricultural fires, may reduce visibility over portions of 
southern Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected 
during the next 7 days. 


South to southwest monsoonal winds are moderate to locally fresh
off the coast of Ecuador and to the Galapagos Islands. Long 
period SW swell is producing seas to 8 ft south of the Galapagos
Islands and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 02N. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. 
Moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft range due to long period SW swell 
are noted across the Central America offshore waters. Scattered 
thunderstorms are noted across the waters between eastern Costa
Rica and the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 09N-10N 
will help to focus scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
over the Central America waters over the next couple of days. 
Winds will remain moderate or weaker through this week. Southerly
swell propagating across the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
offshore waters will support seas of 6 to 8 ft tonight through 
Tue night. Seas across the Central America offshore waters will 
remain 4 to 7 ft.


Strong high pressure of 1038 mb, located N of the forecast 
area near 41N141W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N 
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure along the ITCZ is forcing fresh to locally strong NE to
E trade winds from 07N to 19N and W of 125W. Seas are in the 8 
to 10 ft range within these winds. Elsewhere under the influence 
of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft 
prevail N of 16N to 31N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell in this 
area. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas 
are 7 to 9 ft within S and SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 10N and W of 110W through 
most of the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh 
trade winds and moderate to rough seas along the southern 
periphery of its associated ridge. The high pressure will 
strengthen through Mon, bringing strong winds across the trade
wind zone. Long period SW swell will continue to propagate 
across the forecast waters through mid-week. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 
will begin to slowly decay Mon, and subside below 8 ft by Fri.