Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230242
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0230 UTC Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Five-E centered near 17.6N 116.8W at 23/0300
UTC moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. The system will turn to the west-northwest by midweek. Some 
slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, 
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm 
tonight. After that time, the system is expected to weaken. 
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 180 nm in the 
southwest semicircle.

Please see the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 89W extends southward Central 
America into the far eastern Pacific, moving west at about 10-15 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-09N between
87W-92W. The wave is analyzed based upon continuity from earlier
analyses.

A tropical wave with axis near 102W is moving west at about 10 
to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N-18N between 96W-101W. This wave is primarily 
analyzed from the 700 mb trough diagnostics. 

A tropical wave with axis along 128W is moving west at about
10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave 
and monsoon trough mainly south of 10N. This wave is analyzed 
from the 700 mb trough diagnostics and the total precipitable 
water imagery.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N107W, then resumes 
southwest of T.D. Five-E near 14N120W to 06N134W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N134W to beyond 05N140W. Other than the areas of 
convection mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N-14N and east of 111W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The primary forecast concern through mid-week will be the track 
of Tropical Depression Five-E, as detailed above. Winds and seas
will increase near Clarion Island as Five-E makes its closest 
point of approach from tonight through Tue morning. 

Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern across the region will 
produce only gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through 
Fri. No significant gap wind events or long-period swell are 
anticipated to affect the Mexican offshore zones for the next 
several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient over Central America is forcing moderate to fresh
E winds tonight near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo 
before diminishing Tue. This gap wind event will restart again 
late Thu. Moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough will
build seas to 8 ft or greater off the coast of Panama and 
Colombia before diminishing late Tue. Seas will also build to 8 
ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-period 
southerly swell moves into the region.

Note that the moderate and strong convection associated with the
monsoon trough in the zones from Colombia to Guatemala is
substantially more active than is typical. This is due to a
Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in the atmosphere, which is 
enhancing the showers and thunderstorms in the region. The
enhanced convection should diminish by later in the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high northwest of our 
area at 36N146W east-southeastward to near Baja California Sur. 
The weak pressure gradient south of the ridge is supporting 
moderate to fresh NE tradewinds. Fresh to strong S to SW winds 
equatorward of the monsoon trough will build seas to 9 ft from 
05N-10N east of 100W before diminishing on Tue. Seas will build 
to 8 ft over the equatorial waters Thu and Fri as long-period 
southerly swell moves into the region.

$$

ERA