AXPZ20 KNHC 242041
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1828 UTC Sun May 24 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W N of 03N, moving W at 10
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from
05N to 10N between 84W and 91W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N84.5W to 12N93W to low pres
near 11N107W to low pres near 09N121W to low pres near 10N131W to
09N134W. The ITCZ extends from 09N134W to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted in the vicinity of
the tropical wave mentioned above, from 05N to 10N between 84W
and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 08N to 12N between 91W and 100W, and from 05N to 12N between
101W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N
to 12N W of 120W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N135W to the
Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure prevails over Mexico. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to
moderate winds west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range west of Baja
California and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico.
Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the Gulf of California.
The area of high pressure over the Pacific forecast waters will
gradually weaken through early next week. This will bring a
slight decrease in winds over the waters off the coast of Baja
Agricultural fires in Mexico continue to produce hazy skies from
near the Tehuantepec region to northwestern Mexico.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails S of 10N, with
light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6
ft range in southwest swell.
Gentle to moderate monsoon flow will continue over the next few
days. Moderate long- period southwest will continue through the
middle part of the upcoming week with wave heights building to
near 8 ft to the SW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1027 mb is centered north of the area near
34N135W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon
trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail S
of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate tradewinds flow
prevails S of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the
area. Latest scatterometer pass depicted a few areas of weak
lows embedded within the monsoon trough. One is near 11N107W,
another is near 09N121W, and the other is near 10N131W.
Southerly flow to the south of the monsoon trough will strengthen
slightly through Mon roughly between 106W- 118W. This will help
build wave heights to 8-9 ft over these waters.
The area of high pressure will weaken early next week as surface
troughing develops across the north-central waters. A broad area
of low pressure will develop by the middle of next week along
the troughing near 25N130W.