000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020309
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the southern coast of Costa Rica
near 09N83W to 13N95W and to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from
08N107W to 09N120W and to 10N133W. 1007 mb low pres near 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from 04N to 14N and west of 117W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An extensive 1029 mb high pressure system near 35N139W dominates
the Mexican offshore waters, extending southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the 
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in southern California 
and NW Mexico support moderate to fresh northerly winds over 
much of the Baja California offshore waters, with the strongest 
winds occurring in the far NW waters and nearshore Baja 
California Sur, south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are 8-12 ft north 
of Punta Eugenia and 5-8 ft in the remaining waters of offshore 
Baja California. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are 
found in the Gulf of California.

Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 
will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with 
moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. 
Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and
Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell 
subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja 
California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and 
dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the 
front. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Divergence aloft and tropical moisture continues to support
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Colombia and
Panama. Some of the storm activity is also affecting the
nearshore waters and along the monsoon trough. 

A weak pressure pattern north of the area allows for light to
gentle S-SW winds over much of the region. Southerly swell
generates seas of 4-6 ft across most of the basin, except for
slight seas in the Gulf of Panama and east of 79W.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will 
support light to occasionally moderate breezes with moderate SW 
swell into early next week, with slightly higher swell off 
Ecuador Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure system north of the area dominates the
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and and lower pressures in southern
California and the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh NE-E
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in these waters
are 6-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-8
ft are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, expect little change in the pattern or
resultant conditions into Fri. Winds and seas will start to
diminish thereafter as the high pressure north of the area
dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually weaken as it moves
southward across the waters north of 24N through Mon. $$
Delgado