Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161017
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave with axis along 106W from 05N to 16N is moving 
westward at near 15 kt. Earlier observed deep convection near 
this wave has weakened to isolated showers and thunderstorms 
from 08N to 15N between 100W and 107W. 

A tropical wave with axis along 117W-118W from 04N to 15N is 
moving westward at about 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 14N between 
114W to 125W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W TO 10N87W TO 07N95W 
TO 11N120W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N125W TO beyond 08.5N140W. 
Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 02N to 08N east of 81W, and from 07N to 14N between 114.5W 
and 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja 
California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California 
peninsula is maintaining moderate northwest to north winds 
across most of the adjacent offshore waters where seas remain in 
the 4-5 ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will change
little through early on Mon as the ridge remains over offshore 
waters. However, winds will increase to fresh speeds near the 
coast during the evening hours through Sun night mainly in the 
region between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Low pressure 
is expected to cover a rather expansive area over the 
southwestern United States and along California by late Mon 
afternoon in response to a sharpening mid/upper-level trough 
that will pass over those regions. This will result in a 
weakening of the ridge allowing for wind to briefly diminish 
through middle part of the upcoming week.

Mainly gentle southwest to south winds were captured by an 
overnight ASCAT pass over the southern half of the Gulf of 
California. These winds will continue on Sun. By late Sun night, 
gentle to moderate southeast to south winds will be over the 
entire Gulf and through Mon. These winds then become light and 
variable on Tue and through Wed evening. Winds will increase to 
fresh speeds over the far northern part of the Gulf Mon night 
before diminishing to moderate speeds early on Tue. Long-period 
southwest swell is reaching the Mexican offshore waters, 
however, with most of the energy spent already, the seas will 
remain in the 5-6 ft ft range through the middle of the upcoming 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle part of
the upcoming week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of
the Gulf. Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off
Central America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to 
moderate south to southwest flow with scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will prevail south of the monsoon trough through 
Sun night and early into next next week. 

Long-period southwest swell propagating through the southern 
waters will build the waveheights to 8 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through the remainder of this weekend. 
Wave model guidance suggests that another set of south to 
southwest swell will propagate through the southern waters west 
of 85W Tue night through Thu building waveheights there to 
a peak of 8 ft again before they begin to subside late on Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters. 
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are between the ridge and the 
ITCZ west of 125W. Seas in this region are generally 5-7 ft 
based on the latest altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh 
trades are expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the 
remainder of this weekend and into early next week as a couple 
of tropical waves moves south of the ridge.

Long period southwest swell will continue to propagate through 
high seas areas east of 120W through Sun night. Seas will remain
8 ft or greater south of the Equator through the middle of the
upcoming week, as a reinforcing set of southwest swell is 
expected to reach the far southwestern waters by Mon night. 
Expect 8-9 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 100W by Tue.
Elsewhere, northwest to north swell will impact the far northern
waters west of about 125W beginning on Mon night and continuing 
through Wed night as strong high pressure builds southward to 
the north of the area and while low pressure lingers offshore 
California. Waveheights associated with the swell will likely 
build to 8-10 ft north of 28N.

$$
Stripling