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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 16.1N 107.1W at 30/1500
UTC moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 18N
between 105W and 110W. A turn toward the north is expected by 
tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is 
then forecast to turn toward the north-northeast by Saturday or 
Saturday night. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Orlene is forecast to become a 
hurricane tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
high pressure across eastern Mexico and the eastern north 
Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale force winds over the 
Tehuantepec region. Winds will diminish below gale force this
morning as the area of high pressure weakens, which will loosen 
the pressure gradient. Seas to 14 ft will gradually subside to 8
ft by this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W then resumes 
from 14N112W to 13N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 82W and 102W, across
the Colombia and Panama offshore waters, from 11N to 17N between
112W and 119W, and from 08N to 16N W of 126W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical 
Storm Orlene, and on a Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open
waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene and the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning, mainly gentle to moderate winds will
dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night
into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with
light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in
the 4-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will 
increase to moderate to fresh speeds later today and diminish 
back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish
to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise,
seas offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind event across 
the Tehuantepec region will subside tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is
supporting moderate NE to E winds north of the monsoon trough and
west of 120W. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over much of the discussion waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters with little change to the expected conditions over the
next couple of days.

$$
Ramos