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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



470 
AXPZ20 KNHC 261542
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 19.1N 113.7W at 26/1500
UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Numerous moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm SE semicircle.
Similar convection is elsewehre from 17N to 19N between 112W and
115W, and from 19N to 21N between 111W and 113W. Celia is
moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is 
expected to continue over the next several days. Weakening is 
forecast and Celia is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
on Monday. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern coast of
Mexico, the southern Baja California peninsula, and the coast of
west-central Mexico during the next few days. These conditions 
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W N of 04N and extends northward to 
across Guatemala, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is seen N of 09N between 90W and 95W.
Part of this convective activity is affecting the Tehuantepec
region.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N91W to 11N101W, 
then continues south of Celia from 12N115W to 07N127W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 80W and 110W.
Similar convection is from 05N to 08N W of 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are noted
offshore Baja California Norte, with moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle 
winds are across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. 
Outside of Celia, seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft in the 
central and northern Gulf of California. A recent altimeter pass
indicates seas of 8 ft reaching Cabo San Lazaro.

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater will continue to propagate
across the waters between Los Cabos and The Marias Islands, as 
well as to the entrance to the Gulf of California today. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
overnight into the early morning hours through the week. A trough
of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the southern 
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental 
conditions could support some gradual development of this system 
thereafter as it moves generally westward-northwestward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate winds are occurring in the Papagayo region, with gentle
to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the 
offshore waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft offshore 
Ecuador.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across
the Papagayo region will gradually shift west-northwest with a 
passing tropical wave through the early part of the week. Light 
to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough with gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough through the upcoming week. Seas will not vary much
through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

A surface ridge extends from well north of the area to across 
the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 
Celia. A 1019 mb high pressure remains over the NW forecast 
region near 26N134W. Mainly light winds are observed under the 
influence of the ridge N of 20N and W of 125W while gentle to 
moderate N to NE winds are along the southern periphery of the 
ridge and north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft prevail south
of the monsoon trough, locally 8 ft S of the equator and west of
105W.

For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the forecast area 
W of 125W and N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough through at least
the middle of the week, when the ridge will build again across
the offshore waters of Baja California. A new set of SW swell 
will bring seas of 8-9 ft across the waters S of the equator and 
W of 100W over the next 48 hours.

$$
GR