AXPZ20 KNHC 050936
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 5 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building in the
wake of the next cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will bring the
next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region Saturday afternoon.
Winds will rapidly increase to gale force late Sat afternoon and
evening. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Tue night.
The forecast calls for winds of 35-40 kt and seas building up to
15-16 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 03N95W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N95W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
showers are in the vicinity of the boundary between 95W-115W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Long period NW swell will continue to affect the waters west of
Baja California through this evening. Another swell event will
reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia Fri night into Sat, building
seas to 8-12 ft by Sat night and continue through the weekend.
Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh NW-N winds are expected
across the offshore waters of Baja California during the next
As high pressure builds across the offshore waters of Baja
California, expect fresh to locally strong northerly winds
across the central and southern Gulf of California today through
this evening. These winds will spread beyond the entrance of the
Gulf, with fresh to locally strong N-NW winds occurring within
about 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo
Corrientes tonight into Fri morning.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas generally in the 6-8 ft
range will continue across the Papagayo region through early next
week. Winds are expected to increase to 30 kt, with seas likely
building to 8 or 10 ft Mon through Tue as a strong high pressure
builds over the western Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the Gulf
of Panama through at least Mon, with seas building to 8 ft near
Outside of the gap wind areas, light to gentle variable winds
with seas in the 3-5 ft range will dominate elsewhere through the
weekend. No significant swell events are forecast during the
next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A weak upper-level trough along 126W is enhancing mid to upper-
level cloudiness with possible rain showers across much of the
waters north of 15N and E of 125W. These clouds are spreading
across Baja California into NW Mexico.
A new cold front has entered the forecast area from 29N137W to
28N139W. Winds are not as strong with this front, but another
round of long period NW swell will follow the front. Seas will
peak 16-17 ft over the NW corner of the forecast area tonight
into Fri morning. This swell event will also propagate through
most of the basin N of 05N and west of 110W through Sat. High
pressure in the wake of the front will bring an increase in the
trade wind flow by Fri night. In fact, a recent scatterometer
pass shows fresh to locally strong NE winds from 08N-17N between