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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042138
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jul 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Bonnie is centered near 13.9N 100.3W at 04/2100 UTC
moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak
seas are estimated to reach 29 ft tonight. On the forecast 
track, the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but 
remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico 
during the next day or two. Some additional strengthening is 
forecast through tonight, followed by little overall change in 
intensity Tuesday and Wednesday. Swells generated by Bonnie will 
affect portions of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 139W from 11N-21N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated 
with this tropical wave at the moment.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N93W. The monsoon 
trough continues from 12N106W to 07N118W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted N of 03N and E of 86W. Scattered showers are
noted within 300 nm N of the boundaries between 116W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricane Bonnie.

Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are along the Baja 
California offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas. Light to moderate 
variable winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters with seas 3-5 ft except 2-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, expect dangerous marine conditions off the 
coast of S Mexico through mid week as Bonnie moves through the 
region. Elsewhere, NW moderate to fresh winds along the Baja 
offshore waters will persist through Wed night between high 
pressure to the west and lower pressure over NW Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

North of the monsoon trough along around 10N, winds are gentle to
moderate out of the NE to E. South of the monsoon trough, SW 
gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft in the 
Guatemala-El Salvador waters due to W swell from Bonnie mixed 
with S swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, Bonnie has moved west of the region with winds
and seas in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
diminishing today. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent 
for the Central American and equatorial waters through the next 
several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on 
Hurricane Bonnie.

Surface ridging extending along 27N dominates the forecast 
waters. The pressure gradient between this ridging and and 
ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing moderate to fresh ENE trades. Seas
are generally 4-6 ft across the High Seas domain.

For the forecast, little change in conditions are forecast 
across the open waters through at least mid-week. Looking ahead,
the center of Bonnie is expected to move close and to the south 
of Clarion and Socorro Islands on Thu and continue progressing 
away from land on Fri. Beginning on Tue, a large long period SE 
swell will reach our southern border. This should continue to 
affect the equatorial waters through the end of the week.

$$
ERA