AXPZ20 KNHC 060950
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 6 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 14N95W to 10N102W to
12N110W to 07N123W. The ITCZ continues from 07N123W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
evident from 13N to 15N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 100W and 110W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak ridging north of 20N is maintaining light to gentle mainly
NW winds across the region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except for 2 ft
or less in the Gulf of California.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate westerly winds will persist
through late week offshore most of Mexico. Fresh to strong gap
winds are forecast Fri and Fri night in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure
farther south into the tropics. Farther north, expect moderate
NW winds along with more NW swell off Baja California by the end
of week related to a trough moving into the region.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Light to gentle winds prevail across most the region. Seas are
generally 4 to 6 ft in lingering southerly swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse into early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate swell will
continue for the next several days over the region, until
additional SW swell arrives Mon and Mon night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Ridging north of 20N is weakening ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. This is resulting in gentle to
moderate northerly winds across the area north of the ITCZ west
of 120W, with primarily 4 to 6 ft seas. East of 120W, gentle
southerly flow across the deep tropics into the monsoon trough
is reaching as far north as 13N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in SW
swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between off
the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico.
For the forecast, winds will increase along with
additional swell across the waters north of 25N starting Fri,
accompanying the weak cold front that dissipates as it moves
eastward across the region. Southerly swell east of 105W will
subside into late week. Looking ahead, low pressure is expected
form along the monsoon trough Fri along 95W, then and track
westward and deepen slightly well south of the Revillagigedo
Islands through early next week.