000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 08.5N83W to 07N96W to
08.5N107W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N107W to 06N127W to 
beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted from 03N to 08N between 80W and 96W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 02N to 09N between
77W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
also noted from 05N to 11N between 110W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian 
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo 
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures over NW and central Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N
winds across the Pacific waters to the west of Baja California.
Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell. Fresh westerly gap winds 
continue inside the Gulf of California, near the more prominent 
gaps of the peninsula. Seas downwind have built to 3-5 ft. Gentle
to moderate westerly winds are across the remaining Gulf, where 
seas are 2 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at 
5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder 
of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo San Lucas 
and Tehuantepec. The exception is the offshore waters to the 
west of a line from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes, where 
winds are fresh from the NNW.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 
NE Pacific to sustain fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore 
waters, becoming locally strong during the afternoon and evening 
hours today. Westerly gap winds across the Gulf of California are
expected to continue through this morning, then shift to gentle
to moderate northerly over the southern and central Gulf. The 
high pressure will move east and weaken modestly Sun through the 
middle of next week, leading to weakening winds across the area 
waters. Moderate NW swell will build across the waters to the
west of the Baja California today, then become reinforced late in
the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer 
waters of Baja Norte this morning, and gradually shifting 
westward and increasing Sun night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered tstms prevail across the offshore waters between the 
Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama, and
Colombia. Fresh easterly gap winds are within 150 nm of the 
coast of Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo, where seas are 4 to 
6 ft. Between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are ongoing along with seas 5 to 6 ft in S
swell. Light to gentle variable winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are 
present elsewhere in S swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds across 
the Papagayo region will diminish around midday today, then 
remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. Moderate N 
winds across the Gulf of Panama will shift to W to SW during the 
coming days. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises seas 
slightly across the regional waters Mon night and Tue. Looking 
ahead, a more significant S swell is expected across the region 
late in the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb center of high pressure near 34N145W extends a broad 
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The 
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 07N to 25N W of 115W. Seas 
in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 25N and 
W of the Baja California offshore waters, winds are gentle to 
moderate from the N to NE, with seas in the 5-7 ft range in 
northerly swell, except to 8 ft E of 122W. Gentle to moderate SE 
to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S 
swell prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will continue S of 22N and 
west of 118W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to strong. This 
will maintain seas at 6 to 9 ft south of the ridge. Moderate N to
NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north of 22N through
Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja California Norte 
building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and gradually spreading 
westward to 130W. Little change is forecast across the remainder 
of the waters through early next week.

$$
Hagen