000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021515
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 07N77W to 12N95W to 09N105W.
The ITCZ stretches from 09N105W to 04N120W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection from 01N to 07N east of 80W, and
within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W
and 115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge well northwest of the offshore waters
of Mexico continues to dominate the region. Overnight scatterometer
satellite passes indicate mostly moderate northerly winds 
persist off Baja California. Concurrent altimeter satellite data
indicated combined seas of 8 to 11 ft, mainly beyond 90 nm
offshore and reaching as far south as almost off Cabo San Lazaro.
Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere, with moderate seas
primarily in NW swell.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 
will continue across Mexican offshore waters, along with 
moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. 
Winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California Sat and
Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell 
subsides. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja 
California Norte offshore waters late Sun, then stall and 
dissipate Mon. Another round of large NW swell may follow the 
front. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Favorable conditions aloft and abundant tropical moisture 
continue to support scattered showers and strong thunderstorms 
over off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Overnight scatterometer 
satellite passes showed gentle to moderate southerly winds over 
much of the area. Southerly swell generates seas of 4-6 ft 
across the basin, except for slight seas in the Gulf of Panama 
and east of 79W.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will sustain light to
moderate winds and moderate seas through the middle of next week, 
with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the 
remaining waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure 
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and and lower 
pressures in southern California and the deep tropics result in 
moderate to fresh N winds north of 28N and east of 130W. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds are found in the rest of the basin north of
the ITCZ and west of 125W. Northerly swell support seas of 8-11
ft north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, with the highest seas
occurring near 30N123W. A recent altimeter pass captured seas to
11 ft near 30N119w.

Moderate to locally fresh SE-E winds and seas of 6-9 ft are 
noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change is expected to occur to the
overall weather pattern or resultant conditions into Fri. Winds 
and seas will start to diminish thereafter as the high pressure 
north of the area dissipates ahead of an approaching cold front. 
The front will move south of 30N late Sat, and then gradually 
weaken as it moves southward across the waters north of 24N 
through Mon. Farther south, southerly swell of 8-9 ft will get
almost as far north as the equator between 110W and 120W Sat 
into Sun, before subsiding.

$$
Christensen