AXPZ20 KNHC 291555
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
a surface ridge over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough is
supporting N to NE gale-force winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region this morning. Peak seas are estimated at 12
ft. Winds are forecast to peak to 40 kt this afternoon and seas
build up to 15 ft in the evening. Winds are forecast to diminish
below gale-force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 08.5N76W to
10N93W to 07N97W to 08N118W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N123W to
beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 03N to 06.5N E of 88W, from 07N to 10N between 96W and
118W, and from 08.5N to 11N W of 128W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region and are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Strong
gap winds will then continue across this region Tue afternoon through
Fri, with winds becoming strongest at night.
Moderate northerly winds to around 15 kt prevail along the Gulf
of California to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas 3 to 4
ft, except for 5 ft in NW swell at the entrance of the Gulf.
These winds will diminish Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
will resume at the entrance of the Gulf, the southern half of
the Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore
waters Thu and prevail through Fri night. Moderate northerly
winds prevail across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja
California where seas are 3 to 5 ft in NW swell. Little change is
expected through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds
will dominate the remainder offshore waters through the forecast
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue
through Fri night with seas building up to 8 ft Tue and Wed.
Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or
roughly S of 06N through Fri night with seas to 5 ft in SW
swell. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the
Gulf of Panama through Tue.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1026 mb center of high pressure near 37N129W extends a ridge
southward to near 25N117W. Scattered moderate convection extends
within 60 nm either side of a line from 23N112W to 16N123W. This
marks the moisture boundary between SE periphery of the ridge
and moist subtropical air to the south. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure associated
with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades
north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of about 127W. Seas are
5-8 ft across this region. Gentle to moderate trades are
elsewhere with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.
For the forecast, NW swell will start affecting the NW forecast
waters this afternoon with seas building to 8 ft. Moderate to
fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly from 16N to 25N
and W of 130W through the middle of the week as the ridge
remains nearly stationary.