000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040723
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N83W to 10N98W to 08N109W.
The ITCZ extends from 08N109W to 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 10N E of 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad subtropical ridge extends to just west of the offshore 
waters of Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressure over the Baja California continues to support 
gentle to moderate N-NW winds off the peninsula along with 
combined seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Along the Gulf of 
California, winds are light to gentle and seas to 3 ft. Gentle to
moderate NW winds persist in the SW Mexican offshore waters with
moderate seas in NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are 
ongoing in the Tehuantepec, Chiapas and Oaxaca offshore waters
with moderate seas in S swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja
Peninsula will increase to moderate to fresh speeds this evening
through Sun. Winds will further increase to fresh to strong 
speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro Sun evening through Mon morning as a 
cold front enters the Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf
of California. Fresh to strong SW winds are also forecast for 
the northern Gulf of California this evening and Sun evening. 
Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshores will then 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu. 
Large NW swell with seas to 10 ft will follow the front and 
affect the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening into
Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across the Costa
Rica offshore waters. Recent scatterometer data show light to 
gentle westerly winds N of the monsoon trough, which cross 
southern Costa Rica into NW Colombia. South the monsoon trough to
04N, the scatterometer show gentle to moderate SW winds, with 
locally fresh winds in the areas of strongest convection. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are ongoing over much of the 
remainder offshore waters. Otherwise, southerly swell continues 
to generate seas of 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will continue
S of the monsoon trough across the Central America offshore 
waters and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to
gentle variable winds will dominate elsewhere along with moderate
seas in S swell. Otherwise, seas will subside to 5-6 ft S of the
Galapagos Islands this evening. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge dominates the waters N of 20N of the 
eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in southern California results in moderate N-NW 
winds north of 26N and east of 126W. Recent scatterometer data
show moderate to fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 25N W
of 125W. Locally strong NE winds and 8-9 ft seas are ongoing W 
of 131W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the far western tropical
waters will diminish to moderate speeds Wed morning and prevail
the remainder forecast period. A weak cold front will move south
of 30N this evening, then gradually weaken as it moves southward
across the waters north of 23N through early Mon. NW swell
following the front will affect the waters N of 24W and E of 130W
Mon night through Thu before subsiding.  

$$
Ramos