559 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010258
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N75.5W to 12N93W to 09N106W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N106W to 09.5N127W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 
10.5N between 96W and 136W, and from 04.5N to 07N W of 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Afternoon satellite altimeter data confirmed large NW swell 
persisting offshore of Baja California Norte, beyond 90 nm 
offshore, with wave heights 9 ft to at least 12 ft west of 
Isla Guadalupe. Moderate to fresh NW winds continue across the 
outer waters of Baja California Norte, between high pressure 
northwest of the area, and lower pressure inland. Gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds prevail elsewhere across the Baja waters 
southward to the Revillagigedo Islands, where seas are 5 to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist across the
remaining open offshore waters of Mexico, with gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and slight seas across the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large
NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of 
Isla Guadalupe into Sat, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere 
off Baja. Moderate SW winds will pulse to fresh across the 
northern Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a dissipating cold 
front moving into the region. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to 
moderate winds will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along
with moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open 
waters. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja 
California late Thu into Sun as the high pressure NW of the area 
weakens and the swell subsides.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW flow well offshore is supporting a few small clusters
of showers and thunderstorms along the coasts of western Panama
and Costa Rica, and across the outer offshore waters west of
there. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes persist elsewhere 
across all of the offshore water zones, with 3 to 5 ft combined 
seas primarily in SW swell, except to 6 ft between the Galapagos
Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will rise very slightly 
across the regional waters into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S
swell is expected across the region early Thu through Sat before
subsiding Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 
the area southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 06N 
and west of 120W. Afternoon satellite altimeter data confirmed 
combined seas of 7 to 10 ft from 05N to 25N west of 130W. Fresh 
to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 27N between 120W and 
130W, between the high pressure and lower pressure inland. NW 
swell of 8 to 13 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 
weak surface trough continues to move slowly westward along the 
ITCZ near 137W, and continues to produce scattered thunderstorms,
mainly along the ITCZ ahead of it. Divergent flow aloft between 
an upper trough extending from southern Baja California to near
10N140W, and an upper ridge farther east is working with low 
level trade wind convergence to support clusters of shower and 
thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 96W and 130W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or
resultant conditions are expected through mid week. Winds and
seas will diminish later in the week as the high pressure to the
north weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. 

$$
Stripling