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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



145 
AXPZ20 KNHC 251450
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1450 UTC Sun Aug 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Ivo is centered near 25.5N 117.4W at 1500
UTC/8 AM PDT, moving NNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 25
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Ivo is expected to continue moving NNW
today, then degenerate into a remnant low this evening at near
26.7N 118.0W. The low is then expected to turn north and slow in
forward speed, reaching 28.3N 118.1W by Monday afternoon, then
dissipate Monday night. As Ivo continues to move over colder
waters, convection near the center has diminished, but there is
still scattered activity about 90 to 150 nm to the northeast of
the center. Southwesterly swell will continue to produce seas of
7 to 10 ft through this evening on the east side of Ivo, which
will lead to large and dangerous surf along the Baja California
coast between Cabo San Lucas an Punta Abreojos. See the latest 
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is crossing Central America this morning along
85W and will move west at 10 to 15 kt into the tropical eastern 
Pacific this evening. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is noted north of 04N east of 87W.

A tropical wave is located along 115W from 03N to 14N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous strong and scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 14N between 106W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N77W to 08N100W to 07N120W, the
resumes southwest of Tropical Depression Ivo near 15N124W to
12N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is located from
07N to 13N between 97W and 104W and from 10N to 13N W of 133W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
Tropical Depression Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Hazardous sea conditions, mainly moderate to large 
south to southwest swell will continue between the coast of Baja 
California and Ivo through this afternoon as Ivo moves NNW 
across the outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions will 
prevail until then. 

Moderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of 
California will diminish today. A broad area of low pressure 
will likely develop near Las Tres Marias Islands by tonight, 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance and 
southern Gulf of California through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave crossing Central America this morning will move
west into the eastern Pacific and produce numerous moderate to
strong convection north of 03N E of 95W over the next few days.
Locally higher winds and waves can be expected with this 
activity.

Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region through the middle of the upcoming week. 
Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate 
the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos 
Islands through Thu along with small to moderate long period 
cross-equatorial SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure that had been around 14N131 has diminished
and opened into a tropical wave. This wave is expected to
dissipate in the next few days as it moves slowly westward, with
scattered moderate convection associated with it confined mainly
within about 90 nm of the monsoon trough.

High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a 
broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 
124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the 
influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high 
pressure slowly moves westward. Seas in excess of 8 ft 
associated with Ivo will impact the forecast waters from 21N to 
28N east of 120W today. However the aerial extent of these high 
seas will shrink quickly as Ivo weakens over the next couple of 
days. 

$$
KONARIK