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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 221525

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1525 UTC Fri Nov 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


A tropical wave axis is along 100W, south of 14N, moving west at 
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 10N between 100W and 105W.


The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to to 1009 mb low pressure 
near 10N118W. The ITCZ continues from 10N120W to to 09N118W to 
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 120W.


A stalling cold front analyzed earlier across the southern Gulf 
of California and Baja California Sur has dissipated. Gentle to 
moderate NW winds persist along the length of the Gulf, with 2 to
4 ft seas. Moderate northerly winds are noted off the Pacific 
coast of Baja California, although some ship observations 
indicate strong winds near gap areas. Seas over the offshore 
waters are still 8 to 10 ft due to lingering long period NW 
swell. A weak pressure ridge is building in the wake of the front
off the Baja California coast. This will allow winds to diminish
slightly off the coast, but increase slightly over the Gulf of 
California into Sun. Offshore wave heights will diminish to 5 to 
7 ft as the NW swell decays.

Looking ahead, a cold core upper low near 30N130W is currently 
pivoting to the southeast, and will be over the waters just west 
of Guadalupe Island by late Sat and off Punta Eugenia by Tue. 
This will draw deep layer tropical moisture into Baja California 
Sur and the southern and central Gulf of California by early next
week. Global models are indicating associated surface low 
pressure will develop over the Revillagigedo Islands early in the
week. The low pressure will track across Los Cabos into Sinaloa,
bringing unsettled weather across the region from Cabo 
Corrientes through Baja California Sur early to mid week
including strong winds, locally high seas, and scattered to 
numerous thunderstorms. A cold front will follow, moving into 
the waters off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of 
California by mid week, accompanied by another round of large, 
long period NW swell in open waters.

Farther south, a few thunderstorms are ongoing along the Mexican
coast near Acapulco. This is probably related to the late season
tropical wave moving across the region near 100W. This will
diminish through today, although isolated thunderstorms may
persist off the Guerrero coast through tonight. Expect fresh to 
strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Sat through
Sun night as high pressure builds north of the region behind a 
weak cold front.


Fresh NE-E winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of 
Papagayo today with seas to around 5-6 ft. Offshore winds will 
then diminish to less than 15 kt through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the offshore 
waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador for the next 
several days, along with light to moderate long period SW swell.
Convergent westerly flow will support occasional scattered 
showers and thunderstorms off the Colombian coast through early
next week.


A broad area of low pressure along the convergence zone centered 
near 10N118W is drifting westward and interacting with an upper 
level trough. This interaction is supporting showers and a few 
thunderstorms just north of the low, as well as north of the
monsoon trough between 105W and 120W. The low will shift 
westward the next few days. Easterly winds to 20 kt are expected 
in the northern semicircle of the low as the pressure gradient 
increases. The subtropical ridge remains weakened due to an
earlier front moving over the waters north of 20N, and a
dissipating front moving south of 30N west of 135W. Recent
altimeter passes indicated seas of 8 to 12 ft north of 25N, in an
area of long period NW to N swell. NW swell in excess of 8 ft
will encompass the region west of 120W through Sat. Meanwhile
high pressure building northwest of the area will support fresh
trade winds west of 130W.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating another vigorous 
deep layer trough digging into the waters N of 20N Sat and Sun, 
with a broad surface trough forming between 120W and 125W north 
of 18N related to this feature. A broad area of fresh to strong 
winds and building seas is expected between the trough and the high
pressure northwest of the area Sun into early next week due to 
this developing pattern.