AXPZ20 KNHC 232049
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 23 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough is analyzed from 08N82W to 05N101W where
scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops, and continues W
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 150 nm of 05.5N85W and within 30 nm of lines
from 10.5N116.5W to 09.6N123W and from 04N121.5W to 05.5N130W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from 23N116W to
14N97W for the next several days. A batch of northwest swell has
arrived at 30N120W in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, and is
expected to spread southeast across the all the waters west of
the Baja Peninsula by Sun evening, with a strong northwest
breeze setting up along the Pacific coast of Baja on Sat
evening. The pressure gradient will further tighten throughout
Sun, with fresh to locally strong flow forecast across the
entire area on Mon and Tue, with seas to 12 ft building along
30N late Mon.
Gulf of California: Light and variable winds expected through
the weekend with moderate to locally fresh northwest flow
forecast across the entire gulf waters late Mon. A cold front
will pass through the far northern gulf on Mon night followed by
strong NW flow on Tue.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Post gale conditions will
continue to diminish to 20 kt or less, with seas subsiding to
less than 8 ft, on Sat afternoon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Santa Maria Volcano in Guatemala at 14.75N 91.55W erupted on
Thu, but an ash is currently not visible. Hazy conditions and
reduced visibilities are possible during these future eruptions,
and conditions could deteriorate rapidly along the Pacific coast
Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force NE nocturnal winds
expected tonight, with strong drainage winds resuming on Sat
Gulf of Panama: Strong northerly winds are expected tonight and
again on Sun night. Otherwise, fresh nocturnal winds are
expected to resume on Sat night.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of
07N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 07N.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Strengthening high pressure will produce a narrow swath of
strong trades across from roughly 19N to 25N west of 130W, while
northwest swell propagates southeast across the waters north of
08N west of 110W through early next week.
An intense low pressure system is expected to develop north of
the Hawaiian Islands on Sat nigh, then drift northward through
Tue. Strong trades and large swell will develop across the
waters west of 120W beginning on Mon night.