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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291555
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
a surface ridge over eastern Mexico and lower pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough is 
supporting N to NE gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region this morning. Peak seas are estimated at 12 
ft. Winds are forecast to peak to 40 kt this afternoon and seas 
build up to 15 ft in the evening. Winds are forecast to diminish 
below gale-force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 08.5N76W to 
10N93W to 07N97W to 08N118W. The ITCZ continues from 09.5N123W to
beyond 09.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is from 03N to 06.5N E of 88W, from 07N to 10N between 96W and 
118W, and from 08.5N to 11N W of 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region and are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Strong 
gap winds will then continue across this region Tue afternoon through
Fri, with winds becoming strongest at night. 

Moderate northerly winds to around 15 kt prevail along the Gulf 
of California to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas 3 to 4
ft, except for 5 ft in NW swell at the entrance of the Gulf. 
These winds will diminish Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
will resume at the entrance of the Gulf, the southern half of 
the Gulf of California and the Baja California Sur offshore 
waters Thu and prevail through Fri night. Moderate northerly 
winds prevail across the offshore Pacific waters of Baja 
California where seas are 3 to 5 ft in NW swell. Little change is
expected through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds
will dominate the remainder offshore waters through the forecast
period.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue 
through Fri night with seas building up to 8 ft Tue and Wed. 
Moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or
roughly S of 06N through Fri night with seas to 5 ft in SW 
swell. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb center of high pressure near 37N129W extends a ridge 
southward to near 25N117W. Scattered moderate convection extends
within 60 nm either side of a line from 23N112W to 16N123W. This
marks the moisture boundary between SE periphery of the ridge 
and moist subtropical air to the south. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure associated 
with the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades 
north of the ITCZ to near 24N and west of about 127W. Seas are 
5-8 ft across this region. Gentle to moderate trades are 
elsewhere with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. 

For the forecast, NW swell will start affecting the NW forecast
waters this afternoon with seas building to 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly from 16N to 25N
and W of 130W through the middle of the week as the ridge 
remains nearly stationary. 

$$
Stripling